Talking with a Texan friend this morning and bemoaning the chilly temperatures on the way he used a great colloquial expression:
“Jim, we don’t have to shovel sunshine here.”
Indeed.
Kinsley on the Dem’s Tax Plans
Democrats call for ending the “Disabled Veterans Tax” and the “Military Families Tax.” The what? There cannot be any such thing as a Disabled Veterans Tax. It is a label dreamed up by people wanting special treatment, like the Republicans’ brilliant “Death Tax” for the estate tax. Maybe they deserve it, maybe they don’t. But why can’t we leave this bullying by terminology to Newt Gingrich?
The problem with tax credits in general is that they never appear in the budget, so they never get the same scrutiny as direct spending, although their impact on the deficit is exactly the same. By definition, they cost more than whatever benefit they are intended to achieve, since no one is going to be induced to spend an extra dollar on, say, dance lessons (because some member of Congress has decided that it would be good for the country if more people knew how to dance) unless the subsidy is worth more than a dollar.
Tax credits are the worst possible tax policy from the standpoint of economic growth. They are distortionary: they cause consumers to divert spending from higher-valued to lower-valued uses. They are a clumsy way to solve externality problems: if you want less of something, tax it. They are not transparent, so people have a very hard time finding out how much the government is spending on, say, dance lessons. And they may actually discourage work.
For almost everyone except rock stars, leisure and work are basically perfect substitutes: a decision to work less is a decision to consume more leisure. The basic intuition of supply-side economics was that if you cut the taxes on people’s labour, they would work more, since to them, the tax cut would essentially be the same as a wage increase. This intuition is simple, easy to grasp, and widely accepted. Unfortunately, it is also wrong.
Interesting Data Mining Article: “I have Nothing to Hide”
But you need to understand the basic principles of data mining to understand why the world of spooks and the world of search engines are about to overlap, and why you should be nervous about this.
The lesson here is one I call “The Sainsbury’s Lesson” when doing presentations for technical audiences, because I was taught this by a data miner who worked for the giant British supermarket of that name.
The story, summarised, is that Sainsbury’s was spending an absurd amount of money sending people promotional coupons, money-off special offers, and other junk mail to encourage them to swing by the Sainsbury’s supermarket next time, rather than Waitrose or Safeway or Asda – and it was pretty hard to be sure it was actually doing any good.
The trouble was simple: they were sending girly shampoo promotions to households with six rugby-playing male students, or home improvement promotions to households with one elderly pensioner with osteoporosis, or bulk beer deals to households where they were all strictly teetotal. Not profitable stuff. And their IT staff heard about this and said: “But you don’t have to do that!”Worry about governments who will make “pre-crime” a reality.
Mt. St. Helens VR Scene
Politics & Philly Cheese Steaks
The Philly cheese steak is serious business. Ordering etiquette must be adhered to. Customers must state their preferred type of cheese and whether onions will or will not (“wit” or “witout”) be added. John Kerry, when campaigning for president in 2004 in Philadelphia, botched it badly, asking for Swiss cheese instead of the more traditional Cheez Whiz, a processed cheese spread. Even provolone or American cheese would have been better. George Bush ordered “Whiz wit” like a local.
Great Example of “Citizen Journalism”
Amazon Patent Reform Timeline and Jeff Bezo’s interaction with Tim O’Reilly.
A Word on Exit Polls
Yes, the television networks will be conducting exit polls today. But if you are looking for the leaked exit poll estimates that typically appear online on Election Day, you are probably out of luck at least until later tonight. More on that below. But as long as you are here, let me tell you a little bit about how exit polls are conducted, how they will be different this year, and why it is probably best to try to ignore the exit poll estimates that will inevitably leak later tonight.
I have always been a fan of exit polls. Despite their shortcomings and the inevitable controversies, the final network exit polls remain our best source of data on who voted and why. Having said that, exit polls are still just random sample surveys, possessing the usual limitations plus some that are unique to exit polling.
Election Litigation Website
As lawyers look for close races to contest, it is important to remember that just because the result of an election is challenged in court, it does not necessarily mean that the public should view the result as tainted or the electoral process broken. Instead, if the litigation ends with the losing side acknowledging that ultimately the votes weren’t there, then this kind of delayed concession speech should be accepted as evidence of the system working successfully, just as if the concession speech is delivered tonight.
Election Day Links
- Dane County Fall Election Results
- WisPolitics Election Blog
- Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Election Page
- Wall Street Journal on “Wisconsin’s Cheesy Reformers“
- Pollster.com
- Channel3000.com
- WKOW-TV
- Wisconsin Public Radio
- Mankiw on “Why Some People Shouldn’t Vote“
I had a conversation with a young 4th grader this morning while queueing up at the poll. We clearly need to improve our civics awareness and interest.
Kristian Knutsen is live blogging today’s election.
Dane County Register of Deeds Race
I’m happy that we actually have a choice in tomorrow’s Dane County Register of Deeds race. This is unusual. I contacted both candidates recently and asked them for their views on Open Records and the Register of Deeds office.
I’ve been concerned over the years that some government agencies don’t follow (ignore?) the Open Records laws. Rather, they take the opportunity to charge taxpayers twice, once via taxes and a second time via various access fees for public information. There are no shortage of arguments over these questions.
Peter Ellestad responded via email (I’ve not heard from his opponent, Kristi Chlebowski). Peter’s response follows:
Sorry to take so long in responding — I’ve been driving around the county a great deal. Regarding my philosophy about records: I think priority should be given to maintaining and enhancing free access to all real estate records. At present, anyone who comes in to the register of deeds office may search all of these records at no charge, and will receive help from staff to find what they are looking for. I’ve been startled when I’ve been helping someone find something to be asked “Is there a charge for that?” and I think they’ve been surprised to hear “No, anyone can search these records for free.” I think that free access is appropriate and is the responsibility of our office to provide.