Eugene Steuerle, a former Treasury official in both Democratic and Republican administrations, says simply, “We have a budget for a declining nation.”
Mr. Steuerle — along with his Urban Institute colleague Stephanie Rennane — has done some of the most careful work comparing Medicare taxes and benefits. They added up all the taxes people at different points on the income spectrum would pay over their working lives and then translated these amounts into a single sum, expressed in today’s dollars. Mr. Steuerle and Ms. Rennane likewise added up the value of Medicare benefits (net of premiums) that men and women could expect to receive.
Their results show that no cohort of Americans, with the possible exception of the very affluent, pays enough Medicare taxes and premiums to cover their costs. The gap is growing over time, too.