My B-in-L Bob, a very senior BP exec (now retired), is the one who initiates the “Oil is a bubble” discussion. All the inflation adjusted charts seem to only go back to include the 1970s — and that’s not far enough to show the true price trend of oil. Bob argues that Oil has been in a very long downtrend, and the 1970s price spike was an aberration. So too, the 2003-05 run up. A longer, inflation adjusted chart would reveal that the present spike is aberrational, and unlikely to be sustainable. I am somewhat incredulous of this claim.
His point however, is well taken. While he is expecting an eventual mean reversion, simply base dupon price, I have a similar expectation based upon market cycles. The next recession (there’s always a next recession, just as there’s always a next recovery) will see reduced demand for Oil, and that will allow prices to fall.
Yearly Archives: 2005
Businesses Fight Wisconsin’s “Unlimited” Jury Awards
Businesses are preparing to launch a $2 million campaign to fight a series of state Supreme Court rulings they fear are making Wisconsin an easier place to sue doctors and manufacturers.
They want lawmakers to counter some of the rulings with legislation, and, they say, they want to educate voters on what they calls one justice’s “votes in support of frivolous lawsuits.”
Wisconsin implemented several laws in the mid-1990s in an attempt to limit jury awards for such non-economic damages as pain and suffering in malpractice and liability cases.
But last month, the state Supreme Court threw out the limits on medical malpractice awards. The next day, it cleared the way for a Milwaukee teen to sue several makers of a lead paint pigment his attorneys claim made him mentally retarded – even though they can’t prove the manufactures had any ties to the paint that may have sickened him.
Marketers Wrestle with Hard-to-Control Web Content
Kris Oser describes (Subscription – Ad Age) the influence between advertising and media content:
Is it safe to advertise in places on the Internet that are essentially run by consumers and cannot be controlled? How can they protect themselves and their good names when blog and chat-room users are liable to say and post anything? It’s not just pornography or off-color language that worries them. What if consumers got angry about something involving a marketer’s brand, and their remarks got linked to across the Internet? Maybe advertising in such open spaces is not worth the risk.
emphasis added Dave Winer and Doc Searls offer useful comments.
Oakland A’s in First Place – Brewers are Not
Yet other teams have smart players with skill and vision. Tampa Bay has had several first-round draft choices over the years. Texas is loaded with young talent, as are Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and others. But those teams do not get off the ground, while Oakland soars.
Oakland General Manager Billy Beane continues to make it happen. Milwaukee, while, perhaps slowly improving, just is not in the same league, despite a similar small payroll.
Michael Lewis’s Moneyball is a must read for this interested in just how the A’s have been very competitive while the Brewers have not…
Water Wars come to Southeast Wisconsin
I lived in the western US for a number of years. During this time, I became quite familiar with water shortages and local efforts to address these problems. Living in San Francisco (late 1980’s/early 1990’s), I remember many restaurants stopped serving water with meals (unless one asked – 5+ times). I also recall the mandate that residents restrict their bathing frequency to 3X/week. Fast forward to 2005 and I find that Waukesha, just 55 miles east of Madison, faces significant water problems. Felicity Barringer digs in:
The draw-down of water from the deep aquifer was gradual at first, accelerating in the late 1980’s and throughout the next 15 years. In recent measurements, the water level had dropped about 600 feet. And the deeper the water source, the more likely that it would be contaminated with too much radium, a naturally occurring radioactive element.
A must read, for all water consumers: Cadillac Desert.
The Decline of Hard News TV
Do Not Send List for Credit Card Offers
Attorney General Peg Lautenschlager issued a press release encouraging residents to help curtail identity theft by opting out of receiving unsolicited credit card offers by mail. You may call the Federal Trade Commission’s Opt Out number 888-5OPTOUT (888-567-8688) or log on to their website www.optoutprescreen.com to stop mailings for 5 years or permanently.
Northwest Goes after the Small Airlines with Non-Stops to Las Vegas
Northwest Airlines, Madison’s largest air carrier, announced new non-stop service to Las Vegas yesterday. This service competes with an existing non-stop route flown by Allegiant Airlines. The major airlines have often used this tactic to drive low fare competitors from the market. Northwest flies several non-stop routes from Milwaukee that compete with local favorite Midwest Airlines. These flights are unusual in that they do not require connections on NW’s Minneapolis, Detroit or Memphis fortress hubs.
$100 Million Tourist Trip Around the Moon
NASA brought the shuttle Discovery back from low Earth orbit, now a private company plans to announce a more audacious venture, a tourist trip around the Moon.
Space Adventures, a company based in Arlington, Va., has already sent two tourists into orbit. Today, it is to unveil an agreement with Russian space officials to send two passengers on a voyage lasting 10 to 21 days, depending partly on its itinerary and whether it includes the International Space Station.
A roundtrip ticket will cost $100 million.
Christopher C. Kraft, a former director of the Johnson Space Center, said his feelings about the enterprise were mixed. “I think it would be a fantastic journey,” he said. “I could see why, if I had the price of the ticket and could use the money that way, that it would be tempting to go.”
But Mr. Kraft added that the flight would be cramped and probably extremely unpleasant. With three people in a small Soyuz craft for an extended trip, he said, “I imagine that you could endure that, but, man, it would be tough.”
Lind: Return of the Militia?
This column continues #128, on the results of Colonel Mike Wyly’s Modern War Symposium, and specifically the discussion of what a state armed service designed for Fourth Generation war might look like. Since our number one goal should be to prevent 4GW attacks on American soil, our working group at the Symposium concluded such a service should be a militia.
The militia would be organized into three levels of types of companies. The first would be deployable world-wide, when our country had to respond to some event overseas. We anticipate that many of its members would be cops, as is true now of some Reserve and National Guard units, which means it would have a natural inclination toward de-escalating situations. This is what the FMFM 1-A, Fourth Generation War, suggests is the key to success in many 4GW situations.