Daily Archives: November 15, 2006

Peak Oil Theory – “World Running Out of Oil Soon” – Is Faulty; Could Distort Policy & Energy Debate

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Cambridge Energy Research Associates:

In contrast to a widely discussed theory that world oil production will soon reach a peak and go into sharp decline, a new analysis of the subject by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) finds that the remaining global oil resource base is actually 3.74 trillion barrels — three times as large as the 1.2 trillion barrels estimated by the theory’s proponents — and that the “peak oil” argument is based on faulty analysis which could, if accepted, distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy future.

“The global resource base of conventional and unconventional oils, including historical production of 1.08 trillion barrels and yet-to-be-produced resources, is 4.82 trillion barrels and likely to grow,” CERA Director of Oil Industry Activity Peter M. Jackson writes in Why the Peak Oil Theory Falls Down: Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources. The CERA projection is based on the firm’s analysis of fields currently in production and those yet-to-be produced or discovered.

“The ‘peak oil’ theory causes confusion and can lead to inappropriate actions and turn attention away from the real issues,” Jackson observes. “Oil is too critical to the global economy to allow fear to replace careful analysis about the very real challenges with delivering liquid fuels to meet the needs of growing economies. This is a very important debate, and as such it deserves a rational and measured discourse.”

“Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss”

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Ed Cone:

WSJ: “After more than a decade of Republican rule in Washington, Democratic lobbyists have a lot to celebrate. Just a week after Election Day, they are getting promotions and signing up new clients.”

NYT: “Democratic lobbyists are fielding calls from pharmaceutical companies, the oil and gas industry and military companies, all of which had grown accustomed to patronizing Republicans, as the environment in Washington abruptly shifts.”

More Controversy Over Web Tracking Cookies

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Catherine Holahan:

Specifically, the groups want the FTC to require advertisers to alert consumers when tracking cookies and other such files are present on sites, and then let consumers choose whether they are willing to be monitored. “Most consumers have no idea of the extensive system of online data collection and targeted marketing that has evolved,” says Chester. “They need to know that data is being collected about their viewing, that data is being sent back to a computer based on their tastes…there needs to be an opt in.” Some companies that specialize in behavioral advertising are already getting the message.

The complaint says Microsoft (MSFT) and TACODA, the largest behavioral targeting ad network, are among companies that use behavioral targeting without sufficiently alerting Web surfers. A Microsoft representative didn’t return a call seeking comment. TACODA says it plans to be more upfront about targeting practices.

Wisconsin 27th in “Entrepreneur Friendliness”

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Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council [PDF]:

The Small Business Survival Index ranks the 50 states and District of Columbia according to some of the major government-imposed or government-related costs affecting investment, entrepreneurship, and business.

This eleventh annual Small Business Survival Index ties together 29 major government-imposed or government-related costs impacting small businesses and entrepreneurs across a broad spectrum of industries and types of businesses:

  • Personal Income Tax. State personal income tax rates affect individual economic decision-making in important ways. A high personal income tax rate raises the costs of working, saving, investing, and risk taking. Personal income tax rates vary among states, therefore impacting crucial economic decisions and activities. In fact, the personal income tax impacts business far more than generally assumed because roughly 90 percent of businesses file taxes as individuals (e.g., sole proprietorship, partnerships and S-Corps.), and therefore pay personal income taxes rather than
    corporate income taxes. Measurement in the Small Business Survival Index: state’s top personal income tax rate.1

  • Capital Gains Tax. One of the biggest obstacles that start-ups or expanding businesses face is access to capital. State capital gains taxes, therefore, affect the economy by directly impacting the rate of return on investment and entrepreneurship. Indeed, capital gains taxes are direct levies
    on risk taking, or the sources of growth in the economy. High capital gains taxes restrict access to capital, and help to restrain or redirect risk taking. Measurement in the Small Business Survival Index: state’s top capital gains tax rate on individuals.2

Honda’s Fuel Cell Car

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Matt Naumann:

This car “is not just some far-out, pie-in-the-sky exercise in what may or may not come to fruition some day in the distant future,” said John Mendel, Honda’s senior vice president. “This is a real car.”
Honda has said it will put a fuel-cell vehicle into limited production in 2008. Company insiders say it will closely resemble the FCX Concept. The company hasn’t said how many will be made or how much it will cost to lease the car.