7. Wisconsin: Yes, we know about this poll, which showed Gov. Jim Doyle (D) ahead of Rep. Mark Green (R) by 13 points. But the numbers were greeted with skepticism, even by many Democrats. (The poll should be taken with a grain of salt for several methodological reason — it was in the field for an unusually long time and tested adults rather than registered or likely voters.) Ethics questions continue to hover around Doyle’s administration, and typically reliable Democratic base groups — the labor community and black voters to name two — are not terribly excited about helping the incumbent win a second term. Make sure to read Post politics dean David Broder’s take on this race. (Previous ranking: 5)