Investors are falling over themselves to finance start-ups in clean technology, especially in energy. Venture Business Research reckons that investment in the field by venture capitalists and private-equity firms has quadrupled in the past two years, from some $500m in 2004 to almost $2 billion so far this year. The share of venture capital going into clean energy is rising rapidly (see chart 1). New Energy Finance, another research firm, reckons that investment of all sorts in the business will reach $63 billion this year, compared with just $30 billion in 2004. The lure of big money is leading investment banks to ramp up their analysis of the latest boom industry.
Monthly Archives: November 2006
Peak Oil Theory – “World Running Out of Oil Soon” – Is Faulty; Could Distort Policy & Energy Debate
Cambridge Energy Research Associates:
In contrast to a widely discussed theory that world oil production will soon reach a peak and go into sharp decline, a new analysis of the subject by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) finds that the remaining global oil resource base is actually 3.74 trillion barrels — three times as large as the 1.2 trillion barrels estimated by the theory’s proponents — and that the “peak oil” argument is based on faulty analysis which could, if accepted, distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy future.
“The global resource base of conventional and unconventional oils, including historical production of 1.08 trillion barrels and yet-to-be-produced resources, is 4.82 trillion barrels and likely to grow,” CERA Director of Oil Industry Activity Peter M. Jackson writes in Why the Peak Oil Theory Falls Down: Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources. The CERA projection is based on the firm’s analysis of fields currently in production and those yet-to-be produced or discovered.
“The ‘peak oil’ theory causes confusion and can lead to inappropriate actions and turn attention away from the real issues,” Jackson observes. “Oil is too critical to the global economy to allow fear to replace careful analysis about the very real challenges with delivering liquid fuels to meet the needs of growing economies. This is a very important debate, and as such it deserves a rational and measured discourse.”
“Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss”
WSJ: “After more than a decade of Republican rule in Washington, Democratic lobbyists have a lot to celebrate. Just a week after Election Day, they are getting promotions and signing up new clients.”
NYT: “Democratic lobbyists are fielding calls from pharmaceutical companies, the oil and gas industry and military companies, all of which had grown accustomed to patronizing Republicans, as the environment in Washington abruptly shifts.”
More Controversy Over Web Tracking Cookies
Specifically, the groups want the FTC to require advertisers to alert consumers when tracking cookies and other such files are present on sites, and then let consumers choose whether they are willing to be monitored. “Most consumers have no idea of the extensive system of online data collection and targeted marketing that has evolved,” says Chester. “They need to know that data is being collected about their viewing, that data is being sent back to a computer based on their tastes…there needs to be an opt in.” Some companies that specialize in behavioral advertising are already getting the message.
The complaint says Microsoft (MSFT) and TACODA, the largest behavioral targeting ad network, are among companies that use behavioral targeting without sufficiently alerting Web surfers. A Microsoft representative didn’t return a call seeking comment. TACODA says it plans to be more upfront about targeting practices.
Wisconsin 27th in “Entrepreneur Friendliness”
Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council [PDF]:
The Small Business Survival Index ranks the 50 states and District of Columbia according to some of the major government-imposed or government-related costs affecting investment, entrepreneurship, and business.
This eleventh annual Small Business Survival Index ties together 29 major government-imposed or government-related costs impacting small businesses and entrepreneurs across a broad spectrum of industries and types of businesses:
- Personal Income Tax. State personal income tax rates affect individual economic decision-making in important ways. A high personal income tax rate raises the costs of working, saving, investing, and risk taking. Personal income tax rates vary among states, therefore impacting crucial economic decisions and activities. In fact, the personal income tax impacts business far more than generally assumed because roughly 90 percent of businesses file taxes as individuals (e.g., sole proprietorship, partnerships and S-Corps.), and therefore pay personal income taxes rather than
corporate income taxes. Measurement in the Small Business Survival Index: state’s top personal income tax rate.1- Capital Gains Tax. One of the biggest obstacles that start-ups or expanding businesses face is access to capital. State capital gains taxes, therefore, affect the economy by directly impacting the rate of return on investment and entrepreneurship. Indeed, capital gains taxes are direct levies
on risk taking, or the sources of growth in the economy. High capital gains taxes restrict access to capital, and help to restrain or redirect risk taking. Measurement in the Small Business Survival Index: state’s top capital gains tax rate on individuals.2
Honda’s Fuel Cell Car
This car “is not just some far-out, pie-in-the-sky exercise in what may or may not come to fruition some day in the distant future,” said John Mendel, Honda’s senior vice president. “This is a real car.”
Honda has said it will put a fuel-cell vehicle into limited production in 2008. Company insiders say it will closely resemble the FCX Concept. The company hasn’t said how many will be made or how much it will cost to lease the car.
Madison #5 in US in % of “Exurban” Population!
Alan Berube, Audrey Singer, Jill H. Wilson, and William H. Frey of [1.5MB PDF] The Brookings Institution:
- Madison 2000 Census Population: 501,774
- Total Exurban Population: 110,127
- Percentage Exurban: 21.9%
AMT Overhaul on the Way?
The focus on the AMT is hardly surprising, given that victims of the tax have been concentrated in high-cost urban areas such as Washington, New York and San Francisco — places that tend to vote Democratic. Rangel, Hoyer and Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the presumptive House speaker, all represent states hit hard by the AMT, which is sometimes called the “blue-state tax.” To map states with the highest concentrations of AMT taxpayers is to draw bull’s-eyes over California and the Northeastern seaboard.
Third Quarter Real Estate Market Data
Dave Stark [PDF]:
We are currently witnessing a phenomenon that I have not
seen in my nearly 30 years in real estate brokerage. For the first
time in anyone’s memory, we are seeing a noticeable slowdown in sales despite continuing record low interest rates. I’ve experienced many soft markets before; most (1980 – 1982 particularly) were far more severe than this. But all of those were precipitated by rapidly rising interest rates. This one seems to be occurring even though rates have actually fallen (that’s right, fallen) over the past 60 to 90 days by nearly two thirds of a percentage point, remaining near all time lows. At this writing, 30 year rates are around 6.375%. What’s going on?I’ve heard many explanations offered, and many have some validity. For starters, the Federal Reserve has raised short term interest rates steadily over the last two years. This has probably led many consumers to assume that mortgage rates were rising too. They did rise a little, but not much… they’re still within a percentage point or so of their lows. It’s also true, as you see below and on the following pages, that inventories have continued to rise, leading many to assume that the market is “slow,” since they see more for sale signs than they’re used to. Perhaps most importantly, the media has been relentlessly predicting a “bursting real estate bubble” for two years now, and they’ve seized on any evidence of a slowdown to fuel the gloomy predictions. While fears of a bursting bubble are utterly unfounded, especially here (see page 2), we’re hearing that many buyers are afraid to buy, thinking that real estate has become a bad investment on which they’ll lose money. A self fulfilling prophecy if ever there was one. Add in the fact that the fall is normally the slowest time of year anyway, and the market appears just plain tired after a sizzling 5 year run.
Cold Temperatures and the Onset of Winter
Talking with a Texan friend this morning and bemoaning the chilly temperatures on the way he used a great colloquial expression:
“Jim, we don’t have to shovel sunshine here.”
Indeed.