n 1974 the Federal Energy Administration asked 4 statisticians to provide independent estimates of the amount of oil still underground. The four groups worked completely independently; I found out the names of the other three groups long after the reports were filed. The results, as I recall, were one very low forecast, one very high forecast, and two skeptical reports (including mine) in effect saying the error bound around the forecasts covered all reasonable policy alternatives. Thus the collective result confirmed the views of the two skeptical reports!
Here is my analysis. Perhaps this should have appeared as a short case study in Beautiful Evidence, but the idea never occurred to me.
What about now, 31 years later? My skepticism about resource forecasts might be confirmed or might not by a fresh analysis, which would reveal what a fresh analysis of the evidence would reveal. In policy relevant studies of evidence, there is too often a rage to conclude.
Daily Archives: September 25, 2006
GM Janesville Plant History
GM’s Janesville, Wisc., Assembly plant has produced more than half a million trucks capable of running on corn-based E-85 ethanol. But back in 1919, farmers counted on the Janesville plant for another reason: Samson Model M tractors.
The Model M cost $445 and used a four-cylinder Northway engine with a disc-type clutch. Moving parts were enclosed and self-oiling, making them low maintenance. The Model M was advertised to be so simple that the toolbox only contained three wrenches.