{"id":8045,"date":"2020-05-04T09:20:20","date_gmt":"2020-05-04T15:20:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/?p=8045"},"modified":"2020-05-04T09:20:21","modified_gmt":"2020-05-04T15:20:21","slug":"comments-on-covid-19-contact-tracing-apps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/?p=8045","title":{"rendered":"Comments on COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.schneier.com\/blog\/archives\/2020\/05\/me_on_covad-19_.html\">Bruce Schneier:<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto !important; margin: 0px 0px 20px !important; padding: 0px !important; padding-inline-start: 16px !important; border-width: 0px 0px 0px 2px !important; border-left-style: solid !important; border-left-color: rgb(208, 208, 208) !important; color: rgb(137, 137, 137) !important; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none\">\n<p style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto !important; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin: 0px 0px 20px !important\">&#8220;My problem with contact tracing apps is that they have absolutely no value,&#8221; Bruce Schneier, a privacy expert and fellow at the Berkman Klein Center for Internet &amp; Society at Harvard University, told BuzzFeed News. &#8220;I&#8217;m not even talking about the privacy concerns, I mean the efficacy. Does anybody think this will do something useful? &#8230; This is just something governments want to do for the hell of it. To me, it&#8217;s just techies doing techie things because they don&#8217;t know what else to do.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto !important; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin: 0px 0px 20px !important; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none\">I haven&#8217;t blogged about this because I thought it was obvious. But from the tweets and emails I have received, it seems not.<\/p>\n<p style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto !important; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin: 0px 0px 20px !important; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none\">This is a classic identification problem, and efficacy depends on two things: false positives and false negatives.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto !important; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 0px 0px 20px !important; padding: 0px !important; padding-inline-start: 30px !important; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none\">\n<li style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto !important\">False positives: Any app will have a precise definition of a contact: let&#8217;s say it&#8217;s less than six feet for more than ten minutes. The false positive rate is the percentage of contacts that don&#8217;t result in transmissions. This will be because of several reasons. One, the app&#8217;s location and proximity systems &#8212; based on GPS and Bluetooth &#8212; just aren&#8217;t accurate enough to capture every contact. Two, the app won&#8217;t be aware of any extenuating circumstances, like walls or partitions. And three, not every contact results in transmission; the disease has some transmission rate that&#8217;s less than 100% (and I don&#8217;t know what that is).<\/li>\n<li style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto !important\">False negatives: This is the rate the app fails to register a contact when an infection occurs. This also will be because of several reasons. One, errors in the app&#8217;s location and proximity systems. Two, transmissions that occur from people who don&#8217;t have the app (even Singapore didn&#8217;t get above a 20% adoption rate for the app). And three, not every transmission is a result of that precisely defined contact &#8212; the virus sometimes travels further.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto !important; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin: 0px 0px 20px !important; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none\">Assume you take the app out grocery shopping with you and it subsequently alerts you of a contact. What should you do? It&#8217;s not accurate enough for you to quarantine yourself for two weeks. And without ubiquitous, cheap, fast, and accurate testing, you can&#8217;t confirm the app&#8217;s diagnosis. So the alert is useless.<\/p>\n<p style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto !important; line-height: 1.4em !important; margin: 0px 0px 20px !important; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none\">Similarly, assume you take the app out grocery shopping and it doesn&#8217;t alert you of any contact. Are you in the clear? No, you&#8217;re not. You actually have no idea if you&#8217;ve been infected.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bruce Schneier: &#8220;My problem with contact tracing apps is that they have absolutely no value,&#8221; Bruce Schneier, a privacy expert and fellow at the Berkman Klein Center for Internet &amp; Society at Harvard University, told BuzzFeed News. &#8220;I&#8217;m not even talking about the privacy concerns, I mean the efficacy. Does anybody think this will do [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8045"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8045"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8045\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8046,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8045\/revisions\/8046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}