{"id":15245,"date":"2025-02-02T01:05:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-02T07:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/?p=15245"},"modified":"2025-02-02T10:53:11","modified_gmt":"2025-02-02T16:53:11","slug":"2-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/?p=15245","title":{"rendered":"2.2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>If all this is true, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/CHIPS_and_Science_Act\">CHIPS Act<\/a>, which was designed to slow China in the AI race, may turn out to be one of the <a href=\"https:\/\/garymarcus.substack.com\/p\/the-race-for-ai-supremacy-is-over\">worst backfires<\/a> in history. (I tried to warn a number of people in the Biden administration about this possibility in the summer of 2023; instead of listening, they recently doubled down, in one of Biden&#8217;s final executive orders.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong class=\"mj gv\">Take photos of daily life<\/strong>. I\u2019m <a href=\"https:\/\/estherschindler.medium.com\/the-old-family-photos-project-lessons-in-creating-family-photos-that-people-want-to-keep-ea3909129943\">stunned by the pictures my father&nbsp;<em class=\"nf\">didn\u2019t<\/em>&nbsp;take<\/a>. There isn\u2019t a single photo that represents what my parents did for a living. They weren\u2019t the type to attend company picnics, fine. But I found nothing indicating \u201ctake your daughter to work\u201d or \u201cMom typing up a report\u201d or \u201cthe building I worked in\u201d or \u201cthe woman Mom commuted to work with for 10 years.\u201d That would be more understandable if my parents disliked their jobs, but both of them were passionate about their careers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/novitoll.com\/posts\/2025-1-25\/100_years_of_Bell_Labs.pdf\">100 years<\/a> of Bell labs<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For most <a href=\"https:\/\/www.privacyguides.org\/articles\/2025\/01\/23\/activists-guide-securing-your-smartphone\/\">protesters<\/a>, activists, and journalists, your smartphone is an essential tool you depend on for organizing with your peers, accessing and distributing information, and helping others. It also represents a great risk, as a tool that is easily appropriated by authorities for targeted and mass surveillance.  The perennial question when it comes to protests is whether you should bring your phone at all. If you leave your phone at home, that is probably the safest your data will get, and you will be at very low risk of being tracked by mass surveillance tools. On the other hand, your phone is a critical resource when it comes to coordinating with others, getting updates on the protest from social media, or simply documenting what is going on with your phone&#8217;s camera.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China has a huge and growing trade surplus, as you can see in the chart above. That chart is via Brad Setser, who is really a one-man army in terms of tracking global trade and financial flows. Here\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Brad_Setser\/status\/1878656211584778449\">a thread from Setser<\/a>&nbsp;with a lot more detail on China\u2019s surplus. Interestingly, China\u2019s exports to the developing world are&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Brad_Setser\/status\/1878659390770954653\">a lot bigger of a factor here<\/a>than its exports to the U.S. and the EU, though the latter are up by a little bit.&nbsp;  This is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.noahpinion.blog\/p\/the-decade-of-the-second-china-shock\">the Second China Shock<\/a>. Trade surpluses like this can\u2019t be explained by the good old theory of comparative advantage \u2014 a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.noahpinion.blog\/p\/the-pettis-paradigm-and-the-second\">Chinese trade surplus is just countries writing China IOUs in exchange for physical goods<\/a>. Countries don\u2019t really have a comparative advantage in writing IOUs.<a class=\"footnote-anchor\" href=\"\">1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The two field <a href=\"https:\/\/verovenia.wordpress.com\/2025\/01\/26\/small-talk-chatgpt-and-london-city\/\">performance aspects limited the design<\/a> space for the C Series in general. As a consequence, in my opinion the C Series\u2019 design was not optimised for the larger \u201cmore normal\u201d market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Caldwell is part of a foreign policy movement on the right who call themselves \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/responsiblestatecraft.org\/2022\/09\/11\/realism-and-restraint-get-the-test-at-national-conservatism-conference\/\">restrainers<\/a>.\u201d They believe countering Iran, Russia\u2014and, for some, even China\u2014is not worth the smoke. Caldwell himself told the&nbsp;<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5a2c7e45-cb4d-4ced-935b-f167020e92a8\">Financial Times<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;in December that he would not make a commitment to defend Taiwan, or make \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thefp.com\/p\/the-fight-to-define-america-first-foreign-policy-pete-hegseth-trump-israel-ukraine-taiwa\">more security commitments in the Pacific.<\/a>\u201d Instead, Caldwell said he believes the U.S. should focus on arming the island in a bid to deter China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such is the nature of today\u2019s left\u2014divorced from the working class but intimately connected to the leftist <a href=\"https:\/\/www.liberalpatriot.com\/p\/the-hills-the-left-will-die-on\">strongholds<\/a> of the professional class. The latter connection has kept them blissfully unaware of how far outside of the public opinion mainstream their current commitments are and therefore how quickly the hills they are defending could be overrun. That\u2019s happening right now but the left seems determined to fight on to the bitter end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Visitor visas can be extended for up to nine months, although the ministers warned that working in New Zealand for more than 90 days could require them to declare themselves as a New Zealand <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2025-01-27\/nz-loosens-visitor-visa-rules-to-welcome-digital-nomads\/104863564\">tax<\/a> resident.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In interviews after Boeing posted its detailed financial results Tuesday, new CEO Kelly Ortberg indicated the key priorities for 2025: getting airplane production back up safely, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/boeing-aerospace\/boeing-ceo-ortberg-looks-forward-after-heavy-losses-and-cash-drain\/\">generating<\/a> much-needed cash, integrating Spirit AeroSystems smoothly back into Boeing \u2014 and coping with the realities of the new Trump administration. <em><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/dominicgates\/status\/1884254947103105306?s=12\">more<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"EF2T4I522VDIZNEG3IKKALF3MI\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.oregonlive.com\/business\/2025\/01\/egg-prices-are-soaring-and-oregons-among-the-states-hardest-hit-heres-why.html\">Cage<\/a>-free varieties \u2014&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.oregonlive.com\/politics\/2024\/01\/eggs-raised-or-sold-in-oregon-and-washington-must-now-be-cage-free.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">which are required in Oregon and Washington<\/a>&nbsp;\u2014 are even more expensive. At a Portland Fred Meyer on Monday, the cheapest eggs available were store-brand cartons of a dozen priced at $7.49. Signs at many area grocery stores warn of rising prices and the potential for empty shelves.  Some grocery stores have even limited how many eggs shoppers can buy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hansmahncke\/status\/1884084101382308035?s=12\">tweet<\/a> deserves a national holiday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You just <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/walterkirn\/status\/1884258538022920354?s=46\">copy the CIA<\/a>, whatever it might be saying at the time, accurate or not, and call it journalism<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a reason Florida is known as a retirement <a href=\"https:\/\/www.koin.com\/news\/oregon\/oregon-one-of-the-worst-states-for-retirement-wallethub-says\/\">paradise<\/a> \u2013 it ranks as the best state to retire due to its relatively low taxes for retired people, including no estate, inheritance or income taxes,\u201d WalletHub said. \u201cPlus, Florida receives more funding per senior from the Older Americans Act than all but two other states. This funds things like transportation, homemaker assistance and nutrition programs for seniors.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s a &#8216;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/whitstillman\/status\/1884262384728170956?s=46\">composite<\/a>&#8216; &#8211; like @NYMag does.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Axios\u2019 Mike Allen gets <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/natalie_allison\/status\/1884307533571187060?s=46\">first question<\/a> at the first White House press room briefing, in the \u201cnew media seat.  Two weeks ago to Vanity Fair: \u201cWe beg our reporters to never go to a White House press briefing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Below is the email that was sent to federal employees on January 28, 2025 presenting a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.opm.gov\/fork\">deferred resignation<\/a> offer. If you did not respond to that email and wish to accept the deferred resignation offer, you may do so by following these steps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/digitstodollars.com\/2025\/01\/22\/9976\/\">takeover<\/a> of Intel has become a Gordian knot. The big problem is funding the company\u2019s fabs,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/digitstodollars.com\/2024\/09\/12\/intel-how-much-would-it-take\/\">which will will require tens of billions of dollars and years to get back on track<\/a>. Few companies, and no private equity funds, really want to deal with that large of a funding need and time horizon. On the other hand, the US government has given Intel a lot of money, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/digitstodollars.com\/2024\/09\/24\/intel-enters-the-silly-zone\/\">so simply shutting down the fabs is deeply problematic<\/a>. No one wants the fabs, but the company cannot be sold without them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bagley\u2019s experience is of a piece with the broader trend in retail toward <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/society\/retail-grocery-automation-esl-kroger\/\">automation<\/a> and other technological shortcuts. From self-checkout machines to payment by app, technology is rapidly changing the way we buy groceries. Progressive members of Congress are sounding the alarm: Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and 13 colleagues&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RepRashida\/status\/1858645652521316385\/photo\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wrote<\/a>&nbsp;to the CEO of the supermarket behemoth Kroger in November about electronic price tags (often called electronic shelf labels or ESLs). These digital displays allow companies to change prices automatically from a mobile app. Tlaib warned that this so-called \u201cdynamic pricing\u201d permits retailers to adjust prices based on their whims. Just as Uber raises prices during storms or rush hour, retailers like Kroger&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2024\/06\/17\/nx-s1-5009271\/electronic-shelf-labels-prices-walmart-grocery-store#:~:text=The%20new%20labels%20allow%20employees,Lempert%2C%20a%20grocery%20industry%20analyst.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">use ESLs to adjust prices<\/a>&nbsp;based on factors like time of day or the weather. Supermarkets could conceivably mine a shopper\u2019s personal data to set prices as high as possible. \u201cMy concern is that these tools will be abused in the pursuit of profit, surging prices on essential goods in areas with fewer and fewer grocery stores,\u201d Tlaib wrote<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Epic&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/healthapiguy\/status\/1884611002672791761?s=12\">implementation doesn&#8217;t include the last piece.<\/a> After easier app registration and record location, they require the patient to log into each health system a record is found.  This is a bewildering choice. Even though the record location is a step forward, the architecture adds friction to the process (instead of just using portal credentials, patients have to identity proof and then also log in with credentials). Portal credentials are also not automatically provisioned to patients! So the percentage of patients that can actually use the pattern is a fraction of the total population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can successfully <a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4835311\">perform financial statement analysis<\/a> in a way similar to a professional human analyst. We provide standardized and anonymous financial statements to GPT4 and instruct the model to analyze them to determine the direction of firms&#8217; future earnings. Even without narrative or industry-specific information, the LLM outperforms financial analysts in its ability to predict earnings changes directionally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The hostility @RobertKennedyJr <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/midwesterndoc\/status\/1884824761940721677?s=46\">experienced<\/a> at his hearing was directly proportional to how much Pharma money each Senator received. In fact, each of them simply repeated the same attacks we just saw flood the mass media (all of which were blatant lies). ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond Bernie, 2 of key Committee members &#8212; @RonWyden and @MartinHeinrich &#8212; built their careers as self-branded privacy crusaders, against spying excesses of NSA\/CIA. Trump appoints Tulsi as the first-ever DNI to share those concerns, but they&#8217;ll vote NO because <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ggreenwald\/status\/1884956007157133544?s=12\">Party First<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Nunes memo, primarily <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hansmahncke\/status\/1884757533086171643?s=12\">authored<\/a> by Kash, was not only accurate but actually understated the depth of the corruption. We now know the Russia collusion hoax was completely fabricated\u2014every part of it. Meanwhile, the Schiff memo was a blatant exercise in dishonesty and cover-up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember when Biden <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/farzyness\/status\/1884416774730334521?s=12\">claimed<\/a> that it was Congress&#8217; fault that they couldn&#8217;t stop the mess at the border?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/m.youtube.com\/watch?v=FZItbr4ZJnc\">conversation<\/a> with Morris Chang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 21st Century Cures Act was passed in 2016 with numerous provisions promoting the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.8vc.com\/resources\/a-healthcare-excellence-agenda-for-the-new-administration\">sharing of healthcare data<\/a>. The ONC Cures Act Final Rule and CMS Interoperability and Patient Access Final Rule implemented interoperability standards in 2020. And yet: in the year 2025 patients are still unable to easily access their own claims and records and share them from doctor to doctor. Accusations of abuses abound, such as&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fiercehealthcare.com\/health-tech\/startup-particle-health-files-antitrust-lawsuit-against-epic-alleging-it-uses-monopoly\">Particle Health\u2019s information blocking suit against Epic<\/a>, and the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.healthit.gov\/data\/quickstats\/information-blocking-claims-numbers\">hundreds of information blocking complaints<\/a>&nbsp;submitted to the Assistant Secretary for Technology Policy (ASTP) annually. Where there is smoke there is often fire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/dhh\/status\/1884153318320009431?s=12\">graph<\/a> is causing a stir in the Danish political debate around mass immigration, and it&#8217;s easy to see why. But I think what&#8217;s just as interesting as the substance is the fact that Denmark actually collects the data so finely grained!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019s is an understandable impulse. Decades of \u201cfree\u201d trade <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thefp.com\/p\/memo-to-trump-america-first-china-russia-iran\">hollowed<\/a> out American industrial capacity and left us dependent on China\u2019s hostile dictatorship for everything from prescription drugs to iPhones. What\u2019s more, he\u2019s right to want to curb Beijing\u2019s regional influence, squeeze Chinese- and Russian-aligned socialist dictatorships in Venezuela and Cuba\u2014not to mention keep his campaign promises to stop mass migration and drug trafficking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is hardly surprising since, on a map, the Arctic Ocean offers notable <a href=\"https:\/\/www.palladiummag.com\/2025\/01\/10\/greenland-and-the-coldest-war\/\">shortcuts<\/a> compared to routes going through the Suez or Panama canals. For instance, a voyage from Japan to Europe takes around 22 days via the Suez, but only ten days via the Arctic. However, while distance is one variable, cargo shipping considerations are much more complex. Economic sailing\u2014like \u201csuper-slow steaming\u201d where speed is decreased to reduce the amount of fuel needed to complete a journey\u2014and scheduling are much more important than speed alone. Some shipping routes, like Rotterdam to Hong Kong, are actually shorter through the Suez than the Arctic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In many respects, this is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fantasticmaps.com\/2015\/12\/an-illustrators-review-of-the-ipad-pro-and-apple-pencil\/\">better than working in Photoshop<\/a> on my Mac. I&nbsp;<em>never<\/em>&nbsp;expected to say that. The last 5% is due to the pieces that Procreate doesn\u2019t do, that Photoshop does \u2013 text, labels, some of the more advanced features. So that\u2019s software, not hardware \u2013 and I expect the app store will get a lot more firepower very quickly once developers really get to grips with the Pro.  This is a serious piece of kit that will&nbsp;find a central place in an illustrators workflow \u2013 but it will not replace a desktop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This really does <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/pmarca\/status\/1885867443429785966?s=12\">deserve<\/a> to be cast in solid platinum and hung in the Smithsonian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is the US effectively saying &#8220;our <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/rnaudbertrand\/status\/1886082749779607997?s=12\">attempt at running the world is over<\/a>, to each his own, we&#8217;re now just another great power, not the &#8216;indispensable nation&#8217;.&#8221;. It looks &#8220;dumb&#8221; (as the WSJ just wrote) if you are still mentally in the old paradigm but it&#8217;s always a mistake to think that what the US (or any country) does is dumb.  Hegemony was going to end sooner or later, and now the U.S. is basically choosing to end it on its own terms. It is the post-American world order &#8211; brought to you by America itself.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If all this is true, the&nbsp;CHIPS Act, which was designed to slow China in the AI race, may turn out to be one of the worst backfires in history. (I tried to warn a number of people in the Biden administration about this possibility in the summer of 2023; instead of listening, they recently doubled [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15245"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15245"}],"version-history":[{"count":37,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15245\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15286,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15245\/revisions\/15286"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.zmetro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}