May 31, 2007

Vietnam's Growth as a Tourist Destination

Bruce Stanley:

Paul Chong was searching for paradise on a beach in Vietnam.

Mr. Chong, the head of business development at Singapore's Banyan Tree Hotels & Resorts, came here on a weeklong mission last August to scout sites for a luxury resort. He had journeyed by car and plane up the coast from Ho Chi Minh City before arriving at a tiny fishing village near the central city of Da Nang. In a remote cove reachable only by rowboat, he and three colleagues explored a two-mile stretch of beachfront.

"We fell so much in love with the site that we didn't leave until it was pitch black," Mr. Chong recalls. In March, Banyan Tree won a license to begin building the Laguna Vietnam, a $270 million complex of hotels, villas and spas.

Posted by James Zellmer at 8:34 AM

May 30, 2007

An Interesting Look at Wal-Mart

Michael Barbaro:

A confidential report prepared for senior executives at Wal-Mart Stores concludes, in stark terms, that the chain’s traditional strengths — its reputation for discounts, its all-in-one shopping format and its enormous selection — “work against us” as it tries to move upscale.

As a result, the report says, the chain “is not seen as a smart choice” for clothing, home décor, electronics, prescriptions and groceries, categories the retailer has identified as priorities as it tries to turn around its slipping store sales, a decline likely to be emphasized Friday during Wal-Mart’s shareholder meeting.

“The Wal-Mart brand,” the report says, “was not built to inspire people while they shop, hold their hand while they make a high-risk decision or show them how to pull things together.”

Posted by James Zellmer at 9:45 PM

May 28, 2007

A Fascinating Look at the Sugar Water Business

Andrew Martin:

Coke is also encountering a seismic shift in consumer preferences — of the sort that is challenging the newspaper business and hamstringing automakers. Worried about their health and lured by new drinks, Americans are reaching for bottled water, sports drinks, green teas and juice instead of soda. The decline in soft-drink sales isn’t just for full-calorie sodas like Coca-Cola Classic, with about 10 teaspoons of sugar per 12-ounce can. Sales of diet soda are declining too, in part because artificial sweeteners make some consumers nervous.

The problem is so serious that Coke executives no longer refer to soda as just plain “soda.” “Soft drink,” “pop” and “carbonated beverage,” are also verboten. Instead, the favored term in Atlanta these days is “sparkling beverage.”

Posted by James Zellmer at 10:24 PM

Memorial Day 2007



Presidio Cemetery, San Francisco, CA.

Posted by James Zellmer at 12:09 AM

May 25, 2007

Bratfest 2007: Brats, Hot Dogs Entertainment and Advertising



The Bratfest folks announced that they had sold over 4000 brats during their first hour today. The path to the brat sales tent [image] is surrounded by a stage, rides, games, community tents [image] and some advertising [image].

And, of course, the requisite Oscar Meyer weinermobile [image].

The $1.50 veggie brat made for a good lunch on a pleasant Friday.

Posted by James Zellmer at 4:17 PM

New software can identify you from your online habits

Paul Marks:

F YOU thought you could protect your privacy on the web by lying about your personal details, think again. In online communities at least, entering fake details such as a bogus name or age may no longer prevent others from working out exactly who you are.

That is the spectre raised by new research conducted by Microsoft. The computing giant is developing software that could accurately guess your name, age, gender and potentially even your location, by analysing telltale patterns in your web browsing history. But experts say the idea is a clear threat to privacy - and may be illegal in some places.

Previous studies show there are strong correlations between the sites that people visit and their personal characteristics, says software engineer Jian Hu from Microsoft's research lab in Beijing, China. For example, 74 per cent of women seek health and medical information online, while only 58 per cent of men do. And 34 per cent of women surf the internet for information about religion, whereas 25 per cent of men do the same.

Posted by James Zellmer at 9:25 AM

The Visible Man

Clive Thompson:

Hasan Elahi whips out his Samsung Pocket PC phone and shows me how he's keeping himself out of Guantanamo. He swivels the camera lens around and snaps a picture of the Manhattan Starbucks where we're drinking coffee. Then he squints and pecks at the phone's touchscreen. "OK! It's uploading now," says the cheery, 35-year-old artist and Rutgers professor, whose bleached-blond hair complements his fluorescent-green pants. "It'll go public in a few seconds." Sure enough, a moment later the shot appears on the front page of his Web site, TrackingTransience.net.

There are already tons of pictures there. Elahi will post about a hundred today — the rooms he sat in, the food he ate, the coffees he ordered. Poke around his site and you'll find more than 20,000 images stretching back three years. Elahi has documented nearly every waking hour of his life during that time. He posts copies of every debit card transaction, so you can see what he bought, where, and when. A GPS device in his pocket reports his real-time physical location on a map.

Posted by James Zellmer at 9:23 AM

May 24, 2007

Earmarks, "Phonemarking", Congressional Excesses and Wisconsin Representative David Obey

John Solomon & Jeffrey Birnbaum:

But the new majority is already skirting its own reforms.

Perhaps the biggest retreat from that pledge came this week, when House Appropriations Committee Chairman David R. Obey (D-Wis.) told fellow lawmakers that he intends to keep requests for earmarks out of pending spending bills, at least for now. Obey said the committee will deal with them at the end of the appropriations process in the closed-door meetings between House and Senate negotiators known as conference committees.

Democrats had complained bitterly in recent years that Republicans routinely slipped multimillion-dollar pet projects into spending bills at the end of the legislative process, preventing any chance for serious public scrutiny. Now Democrats are poised to do the same.

"I don't give a damn if people criticize me or not," Obey said.

Obey's spokeswoman, Kirstin Brost, said his intention is not to keep the projects secret. Rather, she said, so many requests for spending were made to the appropriations panel -- more than 30,000 this year -- that its staff has been unable to study them and decide their validity.

For instance, a new emergency spending bill for the Iraq war passed by the House this month had no specific earmarks, but it included a clause declaring that all the projects lawmakers had included in a previously vetoed bill were, in effect, included.

Likewise, the House Appropriations Committee report accompanying the Iraq supplemental spending bill vetoed by President Bush boldly declared: "This bill, as reported, contains no congressional earmarks, limited tax benefits, or limited tariff benefits." But it set aside money for pet projects including $25 million for spinach, $60 million for salmon fisheries and $5 million for aquaculture.

"Absolutely nothing has changed," said the Center for Defense Information's Winslow T. Wheeler, a Senate appropriations and national security aide who worked for both Democrats and Republicans over three decades before stepping down in 2002. "The rhetoric has changed but not the behavior, and the behavior has gotten worse in the sense that while they are pretending to reform things, they are still groveling in the trough."

A 2006 spending bill included $6.9M for Obey's Northern Wisconsin District. Much more on earmarks, including those spread around Madison, here.

More from the Examiner here.

Posted by James Zellmer at 2:46 PM

The First Images from Space: 1946


Tony Reichardt:

On October 24, 1946, not long after the end of World War II and years before the Sputnik satellite opened the space age, a group of soldiers and scientists in the New Mexico desert saw something new and wonderful—the first pictures of Earth as seen from space.

The grainy, black-and-white photos were taken from an altitude of 65 miles by a 35-millimeter motion picture camera riding on a V-2 missile launched from the White Sands Missile Range. Snapping a new frame every second and a half, the rocket-borne camera climbed straight up, then fell back to Earth minutes later, slamming into the ground at 500 feet per second. The camera itself was smashed, but the film, protected in a steel cassette, was unharmed.

Fred Rulli was a 19-year-old enlisted man assigned to the recovery team that drove into the desert to retrieve film from those early V-2 shots. When the scientists found the cassette in good shape, he recalls, "They were ecstatic, they were jumping up and down like kids." Later, back at the launch site, "when they first projected [the photos] onto the screen, the scientists just went nuts."

Posted by James Zellmer at 12:17 PM

China vs. US Press

James Fallows:

Today’s front-page English-language headlines, from the (state-controlled) China Daily and Shanghai Daily:

Why we love them:

1) Harmony of emphasis between the two papers. (Harmony as well with online version of China Daily, which leads with “Wu Yi: Strategic talks are a complete success.”)

2) Removal of doubt and worry from readers’ minds — in this case, foreign readers in China.

Posted by James Zellmer at 8:44 AM

May 23, 2007

Da Nang Airport Bookstore Presidential Scene


Da Nang airport bookstore scene: Hilary Clinton's book above Ho Chi Minh, George Bush and Fidel Castro.

Posted by James Zellmer at 8:35 PM

Dave Stark's First Quarter 2007 Real Estate Market Report

Dave Stark [480K PDF]:

So far, 2007 seems to be unfolding pretty much to form. In our last newsletter (4th Quarter 2006), we predicted that closings reported in the first quarter of 2007 would run slightly behind closings for the first quarter of 2006. As of mid April 2007, sales reported to the South Central Wisconsin MLS for the first quarter trail last year by 8%. This probably overstates the drop, since stragglers will continue to report closings for the next few months. It wouldn’t surprise us if another 100 or so sales will be on the books when we look back next year. Nonetheless, there are a number of very positive, and underreported, trends at work behind those numbers that bear analyzing.

Inventories: In the chart below, you see that inventories have risen slightly from the same period a year ago, although not nearly as much as they did the year before that. However, if you compare both inventories and the pace of sales to 3 months ago, you’ll see that the number of days of inventory on the market have actually fallen for both single family homes and condos (see chart, p.2). Condo inventory on the MLS hasn’t grown at all since the 4th quarter, although it remains stubbornly high. Building permits are down even further this year than they were last year, which will continue to hasten the fall in inventories.

New Construction vs. Resale Housing:For all of 2006, single family sales fell 7.8% for the entire South Central Wisconsin market, and 11.1% for Dane County. However, if you break those sales up into new and used, you see a different picture. Single family resales were down only 5.5% for the entire market, and 6.2% in Dane County. New construction, by contrast, was down 20.1% for the entire market, and 27.2% for Dane County. For the first quarter of 2007, resales are down only 1.4% for the entire market, and are actually up 1.5% in Dane County. New construction sales, however, were down 30% in Dane County for the first quarter of 2007 compared to a year ago.

There is always a 30 to 60 day lag between offers and closings, so the numbers you’re seeing for the first quarter reflect activity from the holidays and January/February, always the slowest time of the year for offers. So far, offers have tracked pretty closely with a year ago, which is good news, because the first half of last year wasn’t that bad. If we have a “normal” second half of 2007, we should have a much better year than last.

The report includes a useful look at Sub-Prime Lending. Dave Stark is a friend and long time customer.

Posted by James Zellmer at 10:03 AM

Google, Dell and Spyware

David Ulevitch:

This is a long post but it’s worth the read. In short, Google and Dell have teamed up to install some software on Dell computers that borders on being spyware. I say spyware because it’s hard to figure out what it is and is even harder to remove. It also breaks all kinds of OpenDNS functionality. At the end, I’ll tell you what we’re doing about it.

About a year ago Google and Dell announced a partnership to include the Google Toolbar on new Dell computers. At the same time, Google was trying to convince the Department of Justice that changing the default search engine in the (then) new IE7 was too difficult (when in reality it’s really simple). Installing the toolbar meant that users would have Google as their default search engine in IE7. It also meant that Dell and Google would share some of the revenue from the advertising clicks that resulted from these installations, much like The Mozilla Foundation does with its Firefox browser.

Dell and Google are now installing a second program on computers that intercepts all sorts of queries that the browser would normally try to resolve. This program has no clear name and is very hard to uninstall. In some circles, people would call this spyware.

Posted by James Zellmer at 8:53 AM

Commercial Radio Excesses

I've discovered something worse than commercial radio's practice of overplaying Sting: John Mayer doing a Sting cover.... Back to the iPod or our excellent local indies - WSUM and WORT or online with kcrw.

Posted by James Zellmer at 8:24 AM

May 21, 2007

Facts About Danish Energy Independence

Tyler Cowen:

  1. The U.S. uses a bit more than 300 barrels of oil to produce one million Euros of gdp, Denmark uses just a bit over 100 barrels.
  2. Pig blubber is an important medium for heating.
  3. Energy consumption has held roughly steady for 30 years, even though gdp has doubled.

Posted by James Zellmer at 9:06 AM

May 19, 2007

More US Inflation than Government Data Lets On?

Barry Ritholtz:

This week's Up and Down Wall Street looks at a recent analysis out of QB Partners. They are a hedge fund run by Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky.

QB put together an analysis of the US dollar, and why its ongoing weakness is both significant and ongoing. In their analysis they see the buck ultimately endingits run as the world's reserve currency.

The heart of the analysis is the quandry left for the current Fed chairman Ben Bernake by new PIMCO flack and former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan.

Poor Ben is confronted with a long term Hobson's choice: tighten the monetary and credit screws to bolster the dollar, go the other way -- loosen credit and lower rates even further to prop up asset prices. Why is this no choice at all? Because History has taught us the Central Bank will continue to "inflate the money supply and promote more credit, thereby sustaining asset prices at the expense of the purchasing power of the dollar."

There's something to this. Grocery shopping recently I noticed that Stonyfield's yogurts are now .99 each, up from .79 not so long ago. I also noticed that Listerine has shrunk their $6.50ish container, thereby increasing the price. I wonder how solid the Government data is?

Posted by James Zellmer at 3:55 PM

May 18, 2007

House Dems: Broadband isn't broadband unless it's 2Mbps

Nate Anderson:

Saying that the FCC "has not kept pace with the times or the technology," Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) opened a hearing today into the FCC's methods for measuring broadband availability in the US. The US lags in speed, availability, and value, said Markey, compared to a country like Japan, where most residents can pay $30 a month for 50Mbps fiber connections to the Internet (which some senators would like to see migrate across the Pacific). But without accurate data on US broadband, neither the government nor private industry will be able to put forward a comprehensive national broadband plan.

Problems with the FCC's broadband data collection methodology have been well-known for years, and Congress is finally poised to step in and tell the agency how to fix the problem. The Broadband Census of America Act, currently in draft form, asks the FCC to increase its broadband threshold speed from 200Kbps to 2Mbps and to stop claiming that a ZIP code has broadband access if even a single resident in that ZIP code does. It also asks the National Telecommunications and Information Administration to prepare a map for the web that will show all this data in a searchable, consumer-friendly format.

The mood among the members of the House Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet was jovial; Rep. Mike Doyle (D-PA) even opened by asking (in reference to the proposed map), "Why do maps never win at poker?" The answer: "Because they always fold." Groan.

Posted by James Zellmer at 10:08 PM

May 17, 2007

Why Squatter Cities are a Good Thing

Rockford Native Stewart Brand [video]

More on Brand.

Posted by James Zellmer at 5:26 PM

2007 National Design Awards

The National Design Awards were conceived in 1997 by the Smithsonian's Cooper-Hewitt, National Design Museum to honor the best in American design. First launched at the White House in 2000 as an official project of the White House Millennium Council, the annual Awards program celebrates design in various disciplines as a vital humanistic tool in shaping the world, and seeks to increase national awareness of design by educating the public and promoting excellence, innovation, and lasting achievement. The Awards are truly national in scope–nominations for the 2007 Awards were solicited from a committee of more than 800 leading designers, educators, journalists, cultural figures, and corporate leaders from every state in the nation. Reflecting the ever-growing scope of design, the Awards program has expanded this year to include three new categoriesÑlandscape design, interior design, and design mind-for a total of 10 awards.

Posted by James Zellmer at 3:18 PM

May 15, 2007

Running the Numbers

Chris Jordan:

This new series looks at contemporary American culture through the austere lens of statistics. Each image portrays a specific quantity of something: fifteen million sheets of office paper (five minutes of paper use); 106,000 aluminum cans (thirty seconds of can consumption) and so on. My hope is that images representing these quantities might have a different effect than the raw numbers alone, such as we find daily in articles and books. Statistics can feel abstract and anesthetizing, making it difficult to connect with and make meaning of 3.6 million SUV sales in one year, for example, or 2.3 million Americans in prison, or 426,000 cell phones retired every day. This project visually examines these vast and bizarre measures of our society, in large intricately detailed prints assembled from thousands of smaller photographs.

My only caveat about this series is that the prints must be seen in person to be experienced the way they are intended. As with any large artwork, their scale carries a vital part of their substance which is lost in these little web images. Hopefully the JPEGs displayed here might be enough to arouse your curiosity to attend an exhibition, or to arrange one if you are in a position to do so. The series is still in its early stages, and new images will be posted as they are completed, so please stay tuned.

Posted by James Zellmer at 7:58 PM

Career Guidance for This Century

Guy Kawasaki interviews new Madison resident Penelope Trunk:

Question: Will getting an MBA or any other type of advanced degree be a good use of time and money since I can’t find a job?

Answer: No. If you can’t find a job, then you should invest in something like better grooming, or a better resume, or a coach for poor social skills. These are the things that keep people from getting jobs. Instead of running back to school, figure out why you can’t get a job, because maybe it’s something that a degree can’t overcome.

Grad school generally makes you less employable, not more employable. For example, people who get a graduate degree in the humanities would have had a better chance of surviving the Titanic than getting a tenured teaching job.

Posted by James Zellmer at 12:51 PM

May 14, 2007

The Apollo Prophecies


The Apollo Prophecies: Overview: The Apollo Prophecies Project has been in development and production since 2002, when it was started at Toni Morrison's Atelier Program at Princeton University. Working with 15 students, Kahn/Selesnick built three major sculptural and architectural installation pieces, The Mind Rocket, Lunar Explorer and the Moon Cabinet. A revelatory text was created in collaboration with a brilliant physics graduate student, Erez Lieberman. This text was altered by Kahn/Selesnick so that American and Russian Astronauts involved in the 1960's-70's Aquarian lunar expeditions became Gods for the Edwardian expedition members who were waiting for them in their Mind Rocket. Initial props and costumes were drawn and created.
More in this video.

Posted by James Zellmer at 8:57 AM

Clues About the Future of TV

David Isenberg:

A recent article chronicles the telcos' slow start in cable TV. I don't think the telcos stand a chance of succeeding in cable TV. Instead, if they're to succeed at all, they'll probably buy or form alliances with existing cablecos. (Dale Hatfield put it most memorably when he said, "Duopoly is an optimistic assumption.") But they'd better start swimming, because the times are a changing; I think four things will make the video entertainment space different in the near future: new devices, RSS, faster than real-time downloads and the end of the Kontent Kartel. Here's an article I wrote last year for VON Magazine about that:
Informative, particularly in light of AT&T's extensive lobbying to supply "tv" across their old Wisconsin copper network....

Posted by James Zellmer at 8:53 AM

NY Times Announces that it will mine web customers' data

Keach Hagey:

In fact, some people at the paper's annual stockholders meeting in the New Amsterdam Theatre exchanged confused looks when Janet Robinson, the company's president and CEO, uttered the phrase "data mining." Wasn't that the nefarious, 21st-century sort of snooping that the National Security Agency was doing without warrants on American citizens? Wasn't that the whole subject of the prizewinning work in December 2005 by Times reporters Eric Lichtblau and James Risen?

And hadn't the company's chairman and publisher, Pinch Sulzberger, already trotted out Pulitzers earlier in the program?

Yes, yes, and yes. But Robinson was talking about money this time. Data mining, she told the crowd, would be used "to determine hidden patterns of uses to our website." This was just one of the many futuristic projects in the works by the newspaper company's research and development department. Heck, she added, the R&D department, when it was founded several years back, was "a concept unique in the industry."

These days, of course, all media outlets—not just the Times—are trying to bulk up their online presence, and many are desperately attempting to learn more about their readers' habits and then target ads to them. The old-line newspaper companies in particular are under immense pressure to figure out how to make double-digit leaps in profits annually—something they didn't have to worry about doing before websites spirited away huge chunks of newspapers' classified advertisers.

Not that anyone would confuse an old-line media company like the Times with a modern data expert like Google, but Sulzberger himself made kind of a comparison earlier in the stockholders' meeting. Morgan Stanley and other investors have ragged on the Times for having a two-tiered stock structure that protects the powerful voting shares from falling into the "wrong" hands. Sulzberger reminded the crowd that Google stock, that most coveted of Wall Street delicacies, also comes in two tiers.

Posted by James Zellmer at 12:58 AM

May 13, 2007

World's Most Beautiful Beaches

Lots of pictures.

Posted by James Zellmer at 8:00 PM

Happy Mother's Day!

mdayjz.jpg
Farmer's Market flowers.

Posted by James Zellmer at 3:35 PM

True Broadband: Vermont vs. Wisconsin

Tom Evslin:

An hour or so ago the Vermont House and Senate both gave final approval to a bill designed to make Vermont the nation’s first e-state. As defined in Vermont, e-stateness means cellular and adequate broadband coverage – fixed and mobile – everywhere in the state by 2010. The initial definition of adequate fixed broadband is 3 megabits per second service in at least one direction; but the bill contains a mechanism for ratcheting that up as requirements escalate. It is estimated that this requirement may be as high as 20 megabits in both directions by 2013.

Although the bill passed the Vermont House with an overwhelming 132-2 vote more than a month ago, it was by no means assured of passage. Vermont’s citizen legislature is hoping to adjourn for the year sometime tonight. There was a danger that the Senate would not have the time it needed to consider all aspects of this very large bill. But they did!

Quite a contrast to Wisconsin's process, where AT&T's stagnant infrastructure (and more importantly, their lobbying prowess) carries the day. Gotta love our forward thinking politicians.

Posted by James Zellmer at 11:30 AM

Recent Rental Cars: 2007 Mazda Miata


The rental car counter presented a simple choice for my "compact" reservation: Mazda Miata or Minivan. I put the top down and began my journey with an '07 Miata. Quick summary: better than I expected, particularly in the acceleration department, but..... uncertain handling at upper end highway speeds.

Decent seats, useful controls, easy to use convertible top and.... 27mpg after a mix of highway and suburban driving. Unfortunately, I've yet to see a rental car without an automatic transmission. A six speed manual Miata would have been much more interesting.

Much more on the Mazda Miata here.

Posted by James Zellmer at 11:05 AM

I-80: Inverse Traffic Therapy


I read with interest two recent posts regarding Madison's traffic congestion. I, too have a fleeting moment or two when I consider Madison's growing traffic congestion. It is difficult to use the words "Madison" together with "traffic congestion" after one has experienced the real, big city version. The photo above was taken recently while stuck in traffic on I-80. We're a long way from that. Regional growth certainly makes our transportation system a rather useful topic for discussion and action. My dream? TGV type train service connecting Chicago, Madison, Milwaukee and Minneapolis.

Posted by James Zellmer at 10:44 AM

May 12, 2007

A Better Cheddar?

napadairyjz.jpg
George Raine:

On the outskirts of Modesto, John Fiscalini, with an assist from cheesemaker Mariano Gonzalez, makes the world's best extra-mature traditional cheddar.

You can look it up. In the World Cheese Awards held in London in March, an 18-month-old cheddar from Fiscalini Cheese Co. was awarded the trophy in the category, the first time in the contest's 20 years that a British entry didn't win.

Down the road from Fiscalini Farms, in Hilmar (Merced County), Hilmar Cheese Co. operates the world's largest cheese and whey-products manufacturing facility. The company makes 1.4 million pounds of cheese every day and will make 500 million pounds this year. It produces 1 out of every 8 pounds of cheddar and Monterey Jack made in the nation.

California cheese production is on a roll. The state is about to pass Wisconsin -- America's Dairyland -- as the nation's leading cheesemaker.

Stornetta's - Northern California.

Posted by James Zellmer at 10:25 AM

May 10, 2007

$4.00 Per Gallon Gas?

shellca0507.jpg

Posted by James Zellmer at 10:11 AM

May 6, 2007

Saying No in Saudi Arabia

Frances Linzee Gordon:

'A guest is a gift from God' goes the popular Arab saying. The hospitality of the Middle East is legendary, and Saudi Arabia had proved no exception. During our weeks on the road and over the course of the 11,250km we clocked up, our car had become so stuffed full with presents that I now called it 'Abdullah's mobile bazaar'.

We stocked everything from the choicest dates and most luxuriously packaged boxes of chocolates to lavish coffee-table books, the finest coffee beans and even a pearl necklace. Saudi generosity was overwhelming, and it did not seem in any danger of dwindling.

The Red Sea port of Jeddah was our final destination. Considered the most cosmopolitan town in the Kingdom - and somewhat wild, degenerate and dangerous by the country's more conservative kinsmen - Jeddah had a palpably relaxed, seen-it-all air. On the private beaches outside town, we even came across bikini-clad girls on jet skis.

Fascinating.

Posted by James Zellmer at 12:11 PM

Famous Opinions

Summarized by Barry Ritholtz:

"Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientific advances."
-Dr. Lee DeForest, "Father of Radio & Grandfather of Television."

"The Atomic bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives."
-Admiral William Leahy, US Atomic Bomb Project

"There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom."
-Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
-Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers ."
-Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year."
-The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957

Posted by James Zellmer at 7:44 AM

May 5, 2007

Sometimes the Stock Does Better Than the Investor That Buys the Stock

Hal Varian:

Stocks have been a great investment in the last 80 years, with an average return of about 10 percent a year. But have investors in the stock market done as well as stocks? Surprisingly, the answer is no. The average dollar invested in the stock market in those years has earned only about 8.6 percent a year.

The discrepancy between stock market return and investor return is examined by Ilia D. Dichev, a University of Michigan accounting professor, in a paper published in the March 2007 edition of The American Economic Review, “What Are Stock Investors’ Actual Historical Returns? Evidence From Dollar-Weighted Returns.”

To understand the difference between a stock’s return and an investor’s return, consider someone who buys 100 shares of a company at a price of $10 a share. A year later, the share price is up to $20, and the investor buys 100 more shares.

Alas, the investor’s luck has run out. By the end of the next year, the price has fallen back to $10 and the investor sells his 200 shares.

A buy-and-hold investor who bought at $10, held the stock for two years, and then sold at $10 would have had a zero return.

Posted by James Zellmer at 12:48 PM

May 3, 2007

Facing economic realities of muni Wi-Fi

Dewayne Hendricks:

In the movement to blanket cities with Wi-Fi, economic realities are setting in as service providers look to tweak their business models to turn a profit. Since the municipal Wi-Fi movement started taking shape a couple of years ago, politicians, community organizers and the companies building the networks have touted Wi-Fi as a cheap solution to a myriad social and economic problems plaguing cities today. Some cities see it as a way to bridge the digital divide, while others see Wi-Fi as providing a third alternative to a broadband market dominated by the cable and phone companies. Up to this point, the financial risk has mostly fallen on the service providers that have put up the capital to build the wireless mesh networks.

Posted by James Zellmer at 10:39 PM

Obama Blows it on MySpace

John Robb:

Micah Sifry has a great example of how the Obama campaign staff crushed a volunteer that had generated a huge following on MySpace. When the site Joe Anthony had sweated over reached epic proportions, the Obama campaign decided they needed to take control. So rather than hire the guy (or even fly out to meet him to interview/qualify him for the job) or even pay him a nominal sum ($40 k or so, for years of labor, a bargain no matter how you cut it), they went to MySpace (a company they were paying oodles to to help them promote the campaign at levels much less than Anthony's site) to seize control of the it.
Robb has a new book out "Brave New War", worth checking out.

OTOH, he's done the right thing on debate media, via Lessig.

Posted by James Zellmer at 8:43 AM

May 2, 2007

American Masters: Ahmet Ertegun

PBS's American Masters:

"I think it's better to burn out than to fade away... it's better to live out your days being very, very active - even if it destroys you - than to quietly... disappear.... At my age, why do you think I'm still here struggling with all the problems of this company -

because I don't want to fade away."
-Ahmet Ertegun

More than most in the $5 billion-a-year global industry he helped build from scratch, Ahmet Ertegun loved the rhythm and the blues. He loved the rock and the roll, jump and swing, and all forms of jazz. More than anything, he loved the high life and the low. When he died at the age of eighty-three on December 14th, about six weeks after injuring himself in a backstage fall at a Rolling Stones concert at the Beacon Theater in Manhattan, the world lost not only the greatest "record man" who ever lived but also a unique individual whose personal and professional life comprised the history of popular music in America over the past seventy years. On every level, the story of that life is just as rich, varied and exotic as the music that Ahmet brought the world through Atlantic Records, the company he founded in 1947 and was still running at the time of his death.

More here.

Posted by James Zellmer at 8:27 PM

Big Political Donors are also Tax Shelter Players

Walter F. Roche Jr. and Michael A. Hiltzik:

What's a politician to do upon discovery that a generous billionaire donor turns out to be a major tax dodger? It's a dilemma already encountered by the Republican and Democratic parties in this season of unprecedented political fundraising.

At a time when newly powerful Democrats, including presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, are pressing for aggressive pursuit of unpaid tax bills to boost federal revenue, the party's biggest financier and prominent Clinton backer is tied to one of the largest individual tax avoidance schemes on record.

And two Republican billionaires — Texas brothers who have poured a small fortune into supporting the presidential bids of two George Bushes and, more recently, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) — were accused last year of exploiting offshore havens to escape taxes on nearly $200 million in gains.

Amid predictions that the 2008 presidential campaign will be the most expensive in history, with spending possibly topping $1 billion, pressure to raise huge sums of cash is a certainty. For candidates, the question is whether the headlong pursuit of deep pockets may also risk embarrassment over their donors' financial baggage.

Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics, said that candidates sometimes have to make their own "cost-benefit analysis."

Posted by James Zellmer at 12:43 PM

Fabulous Gallery of Recent North Korea Photographs



Yannis Kontos pays a visit, by Marianne Fulton:

If one is tempted to think photography isn't important – witness North Korea.

Photojournalists are not welcome and their attempts to obtain a visa are rejected, as were those of Yannis Kontos. He tried for three years to travel to North Korea as a professional photographer. He wrote in his November 2006 Dispatch [http://www.digitaljournalist.org/issue0611/dis_kontos.html] that his luck changed when he traveled as a tourist. But tourist cameras are also restricted to choreographed events and sites.

Kontos described his working conditions while trying to capture everyday life, in part:

"Almost 80 percent of my pictures were taken in secret using several different methods to avoid the attention of my minders. Frequently acting and feeling like a spy using my camera's self-timer, most of the time I was shooting without looking at the viewfinder, even from inside a bus or a train. I managed to catch the mood of the country and little by little I collected enough material for a story. Every night, I was downloading my pictures in secret to my MP3 player, unbeknownst to my roommate. …

Posted by James Zellmer at 11:23 AM

May 1, 2007

Red Tape for Tourists visiting the US

Cory Doctorow:
America is rated the world's most unfriendly destination for foreign travellers in a recent global poll. The War on Terror (which includes a $15 billion fingerprinting program that humiliates every visitor to America's shores and has yet to catch a single terrorist) has destroyed America's tourist industry, killing $94 billion worth of tourist trade, and 194,000 American jobs.
There's something to this challenging issue. A driver on Hong Kong told me recently that passengers destined for most countries, other than the USA can check in (and check luggage) downtown, then take the train to the airport and go right to the gate. The security "friction" does have significant costs all around.
Posted by James Zellmer at 8:18 AM