Peak Oil?

Peak oil is real, but there are strategies available to mitigate its effect, IF we start in time. Dr. Hirsch is the Senior Energy Program Advisor for SAIC and past chairman of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems at the National Academies.

Do Americans Support a Gas Tax?

"A significant number would go along with an increase if it reduced global warming or made the United States less dependent on foreign oil, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

The nationwide telephone poll, conducted Wednesday through Sunday, suggested that a gasoline tax increase that brought measurable results would be acceptable to a majority of Americans.

Neither the Bush administration nor Democratic Party leaders make that distinction. Both are opposed to increasing the gasoline tax as a means of discouraging consumption, although President Bush, in recent speeches, has called for the development of alternative energy to reduce dependence on foreign oil."

DSG: Death of the Stick Shift?

OK rivet counters: Audi didn’t invent the double clutch. Citroen offered something similar over 70 years ago, and Porsche’s formidable 962 racer also gave it a go. But Audi has just about perfected the DSG. (The only drawbacks are a certain sluggishness when gently tipping-in and a slight hesitation when paddling down more than one gear, as the DSG shuffles through the intervening ratios.) Even with its quirks, the DSG rules-- to the point where the clutch pedal and traditional manual gearbox is a mechanical redundancy, a dead device shifting. In fact, any car manufacturer who doesn’t have a DSG or something similar installed in their performance-oriented products will soon be at a tremendous disadvantage.

Requiem for Don Knotts

Knotts first rose to prominence in the late 1950s, joining Louis Nye and other comedy players on "The Steve Allen Show." In 1961, United Artists Records released a comedy album titled "Don Knotts: An Evening with Me," which featured various takeoffs on the "nervous man" routine the comic had made famous on Allen's show. One of the bits, "The Weatherman," concerned a TV forecaster forced to wing it after the meteorology report fails to make it to the studio by air time.

During the mid- to late 1960s, in a largely unsuccessful bid for major film stardom, Knotts made a series of family films that many connoisseurs now say were critically underappreciated at the time. These include "The Incredible Mr. Limpet" (1964), "The Ghost and Mr. Chicken" (1966) and "The Reluctant Astronaut" (1967). The latter two were made as part of a five-picture deal with Universal Pictures.

The Birth of the Toyota Prius

New York (FORTUNE Magazine) � In late 1995, six months after Toyota decided to move forward with its revolutionary hybrid, the Prius, and two years before the car was supposed to go into production in Japan, the engineers working on the project had a problem. A big problem.

The first prototypes wouldn't start. "On the computer the hybrid power system worked very well," says Satoshi Ogiso, the team's chief power train engineer. "But simulation is different from seeing if the actual part can work." It took Ogiso and his team more than a month to fix the software and electrical problems that kept the Prius stationary. Then, when they finally got it started, the car motored only a few hundred yards down the test track before coming to a stop.

It's hard to imagine Toyota (Research), with its aura of invincibility, running into such trouble. But the story of how it brought the Prius to market -- a tale of technological potholes, impossible demands, and multiple miscalculations -- reveals how a great company can overcome huge obstacles to make the improbable seem inevitable. The gas-electric auto represents only a tiny fraction of the nine million cars and trucks the Japanese company will produce this year. But it is the first vehicle to provide a serious alternative to the internal combustion engine since the Stanley Steamer ran out of steam in 1924. It has become an automotive landmark: a car for the future, designed for a world of scarce oil and surplus greenhouse gases.

Tauke but no Action on Network Neutrality

The principle seems to be, "If it helps the Bells, leave it in. If it hurts them, take it out."

Plus Shipping and Handling......, Making Money on eBay

Would you rather pay $10 and have free shipping or pay $5 and pay $6 for shipping?  Answer: you prefer the latter.  Well, at least if you are like most bidders on eBay. 

Morgan and co-author Tanjim Hossain, an assistant professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, held 80 auctions of new music CDs and Xbox video games to test how consumers respond to different price schemes. In the eBay study, they varied the opening bid price and shipping charges on identical CDs, ranging from Britney Spears to Nirvana, and video games, including Halo and NBA 2K2.

...A perfectly informed and fully rational consumer will merely add together the two parts of a price to obtain the total out-of-pocket price for an item and then decide whether to buy and how much to bid based on this total price.

But that’s not what happened in their eBay auctions. Instead, they found that lowering the opening bid price while raising shipping charges attracts earlier and more bidders and ultimately leads to higher revenues compared with doing the reverse. Those findings suggest consumers pay less attention or even completely overlook shipping costs when making bids...

The quote is from a writeup, the full paper is ...Plus Shipping and Handling: Revenue (Non) Equivalence in Field Experiments on eBay (subs required).

Also check out the interesting data on online pricing at Nash-equilibrium.com.

More on General Motors

A couple of days ago, I was talking to an auto industry analyst about the world’s largest automaker. We were discussing the cracks in GM’s hull, trying to figure out which of The General's compartments were already breached, which are filling with water and which remain viable. A wistful tone in the analyst’s voice indicated head-shaking dismay. “I’m no longer hearing anything positive about GM,” he revealed. “The conversations range from how bad it is, to how bad it’s going to get.” I didn’t want to sound like a paranoid fantasist to a new source, so I tried not to out-pessimist the doomsayers. But it wasn’t easy.

Popup Stores

Much has been written about pop-up stores and they are usually placed in the context of being something of a fad or fashion in retail. However, even if it is hidden, there is a powerful idea behind most of these initiatives and that's to provide "brand refreshment" and "brand excitement".

The temporary and unique nature of these stores gives people a reason to visit and take note. Influx believes the idea inherent in the pop-up is one of temporary surprise (great in an A.D.D. world) and that can be very impactful as a communication tool, especially as it's a three-dimensional experience.

An Interview with Errol Morris

Within the entertainment industry, Errol Morris holds a chameleon position. To the commercial production world, he’s established as a highly successful director, both innovative and intelligent. (He’s one of the only, if not the only, director of TV commercials who has written an opinion-page article published in The New York Times.) Within talent and advertising agencies, he is known for his exceptional off-kilter vision, and honored in ways usually reserved for noncommercial artists. (In November 1999, his work received a full retrospective at the Museum of Modern Art. In 2002, the organizers of the Academy Awards asked him to direct the short film that introduced the annual Oscars ceremony; it featured a series of real-life characters—some well-known, some everyday citizens—describing their passion for movies.) In a 2004 Adweek article honoring Morris’s contributions as someone who “rises above the fray to create work that resonates and inspires,”

Local Primary & The Tunnel

Wow, what a disturbingly sad turnout. This is what democracy looks like?

BMW's Turbo Steam Fuel Saving Concept

MW engineers are working on a steam-powered auxiliary drive system that reduces fuel consumption by up to 15 per cent and boosts performance at the same time, the car maker said.

The 'Turbosteamer' concept applied to a 1.8 litre, four-cylinder petrol engine recycles the waste heat in the exhaust gases and cooling system.

In tests, the Turbosteamer produced 13 additional hp in performance with 80 per cent of the energy in the exhaust gases recycled, according to the manufacturer.

Milwaukee Ranked #7 in Overextended Sports Markets

The study by American City Business Journals, parent of the The Business Journal Serving Greater Milwaukee, looked at 179 U.S. markets and analyzed the amount of personal income each region generates, among other factors, to measure the region's adequacy for its current professional teams and any possible new ones in baseball, football, basketball, hockey and soccer.

Milwaukee's total personal income of $75.7 billion, according to the report, is insufficient to support the addition of any more professional teams.

Political Observations From Michael Powell

The Washington DC political process is more broken now than at any other time I've seen in my life. It has collapsed in on itself. I went home and asked my father [Colin Powell] if I was missing something, and he agreed with me that the process has collapsed into pure partisanship. The power of the incumbency has grown. People are not concerned with what's right or what's in the nations interest, they are purely interested in killing their opponents.

Powerbook Tattoos

Wisconsin VC Investment

Wisconsin's Venture Capital investments increased from $38M in 2003 to 68M in 2005, roughly 1/4 that of Minnesota and Illinois.

DRM Based Trusted Computing - Why We Should Care...

"We've always know that Trusted Computing is really about DRM, but computer makers always denied it. Now that their Trusted Computing chips are standard on most new PCs, they've decided to come clean. According to Information Week, Lenovo has demonstrated a Thinkpad with built-in Microsoft and Adobe DRM that uses a Trusted Computing chip with a fingerprint sensor. Even worse: 'The system is also aimed at tracking who reads a document and when, because the chip can report back every access attempt. If you access the file, your fingerprint is recorded.'"

BMW Audio Books

Put on your seatbelt and prepare for highs, lows and plenty of twists and turns. BMW, in conjunction with Random House, brings you BMW Audio Books, a unique series of specially-commissioned short stories showcasing the work of some of the finest contemporary writing talent. Each gripping tale is yours to download for free and a new book will be available to download every two weeks. Listen to them on your MP3 player, your laptop or ideally, in the car. So sit back, hit play and enjoy the ride.

The Energy Outlook Changes

Thinking Different About the Car Sales Process

First, there were no cars. Why anyone selling an expensive product would want potential customers to contemplate a large number of them is beyond me; “pile ‘em high and sell ‘em cheap” is programmed into us on the genetic level. Second, Phaeton customers were isolated, indoctrinated and, most importantly of all, relaxed. The average car dealer’s showroom is more uncomfortably exposed than a public urinal and less relaxing than a dentist’s chair.

Muni WiFi Updates

Surviving Globalism - Caterpillar

Caterpillar confronted the same labor costs and Asian competition that the auto companies did. But Cat is doing just fine. Why?

A Midwest manufacturing company, fat and lazy, heavily unionized, suddenly faces foreign competition. You know the ending: massive layoffs, closed factories, consolidation, rumblings of bankruptcy. That's the familiar story of General Motors, Ford and lots of other big manufacturers over the last 20 or 30 years.

Congressman Quizzes Net Companies on Shame

Rep. Tom Lantos: Can you say in English that you're ashamed of what your company and what the other companies have done?

Google: Congressman, I actually can't, I don't think it's fair for us to say that we're ashamed.

Lantos: You have nothing to be ashamed of?

Google: I am not ashamed of it, and I am not proud of it...We have taken a path, we have begun on a path, we have done a path that...will ultimately benefit all the users in China. If we determined, congressman, as a result of changing circumstances or as a result of the implementation of the Google.cn program that we are not achieving those results then we will assess our performance, our ability to achieve those goals, and whether to remain in the market.

GM Deathwatch: 07 Tahoe Sales

This is a tale of two Tahoes. The first is a wildly successful SUV that’s flying off the lots at full price: a Hail Mary pass that will put General Motors back in the end zone, saving them from the unthinkable humiliation of bankruptcy, with only moments to spare. The second is a gas-guzzling truck that’s being swept out to sea by the vast receding tide of SUV buyers: a four-wheeled indictment of GM's inability to build what America wants to drive at a price that makes the company enough money to stay in business. For the time being, which vehicle you see depends entirely on which one you want to see.

Blodget on Amazon's Music Strategy

The WSJ reported Amazon's plans to offer an Amazon-branded iPod competitor and digital music download store. I haven't done much work in this area yet, so please weigh in, but this strikes me as a startlingly bad move.

First, Amazon's entry into this business is shockingly and annoyingly late. As with the Netflix DVD business, Amazon could have owned this category, but in the name of moving deliberately (or of trying to become all things to all people), it allowed other competitors to build a dominant market position. No matter what the company says, winning significant market share in digital music is going to be much harder now than it would have been three years ago.

Will: No Checks, Many Imbalances

But, then, perhaps no future president will ask for such congressional involvement in the gravest decision government makes -- going to war. Why would future presidents ask, if the present administration successfully asserts its current doctrine? It is that whenever the nation is at war, the other two branches of government have a radically diminished pertinence to governance, and the president determines what that pertinence shall be. This monarchical doctrine emerges from the administration's stance that warrantless surveillance by the National Security Agency targeting American citizens on American soil is a legal exercise of the president's inherent powers as commander in chief, even though it violates the clear language of the 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which was written to regulate wartime surveillance.

RIAA: Ripping Your CD's is Not Fair Use (!)

It is no secret that the entertainment oligopolists are not happy about space-shifting and format-shifting. But surely ripping your own CDs to your own iPod passes muster, right? In fact, didn't they admit as much in front of the Supreme Court during the MGM v. Grokster argument last year?

Apparently not.

As part of the on-going DMCA rule-making proceedings, the RIAA and other copyright industry associations submitted a filing that included this gem as part of their argument that space-shifting and format-shifting do not count as noninfringing uses, even when you are talking about making copies of your own CDs:

Ford Selling the Fusion via Mockumentary

To promote its new Fusion sedan, Ford is airing a "mockumentary" online film series about a band of Norwegian performance artists who would give the Maytag repairman fits. The rock group Hurra Torpedo cranks out cacophonous tunes by smashing clothes dryers, kitchen ranges and what looks like an outboard motor.

By linking with the group, Ford hopes to attract consumers between the ages of 25 and 35 to the Fusion. Ford is sponsoring the three-man band's U.S. tour. The promotion includes an online sweepstakes that will give away the red Fusion SEL the band is driving on the road.

Is Energy's Future Sustainable?

In his Harvard Lecture, Simmons explores the ramifications of peak energy (not just oil). The potential for world conflict is there, but it doesn't have to be inevitable. (5 MB PDF - republished with permission)

A Chat with Mattel's Bob Eckhert

The toy industry's big trade show gets down to business in New York this weekend. Meanwhile, in our new series "Conversations from the Corner Office," Kai talks with Mattel's CEO Bob Eckert about the perks and responsibilities of running the world's biggest toymaker.